The Moses Principle: Leading People to a Promised Land They Can't See
By W.J de Kock, ThD
Educational Consultant to Partners in Ministry
Professor of Practical Theology at Palmer Theological Seminary of Eastern University
7 minute read
Moses spent forty years leading people through a desert toward a land none of them had seen, following directions from a combustible shrubbery, while his primary constituency threatened to stone him approximately every time the manna became rancid. The fact that he died of old age rather than congregational violence suggests either divine protection or that the Israelites had remarkably poor aim.[i]
The book of Exodus reads less like an inspiring leadership manual and more like a case study in what happens when you try to move a traumatised population from captivity to freedom without a roadmap, a timeline, or any agreement whatsoever on what "freedom" actually means. The Israelites complained about the food. They complained about the water. They complained about Moses. They built an alternative worship system out of jewellery while he was away on a spiritual retreat. If this had been a contemporary church, the board would have requested his resignation by chapter sixteen.[ii]
And yet this is, more or less, the job description for church leadership in times of transition. Pastors are routinely asked to cast vision for a future they cannot see, sell hope in outcomes they cannot guarantee, and maintain congregational morale while privately wondering if they have led everyone into a wilderness from which there is no exit. It is less "inspiring leadership moment" and more "prolonged anxiety dream," except you cannot wake up and it is happening during the budget meeting.
The Vision Statement in uncertainty
Contemporary church leadership has developed a fetish for vision. Every leadership conference, every consulting firm, every church growth book insists that leaders must cast compelling vision. The vision must be clear, achievable, measurable, and preferably fit on a coffee mug. It should inspire without threatening, clarify without limiting, and somehow unite a congregation that cannot agree on whether the new carpet should be beige or blue.[iii]
The problem is that Moses—the patron saint of leading people through transition—did not have a vision statement. He had a vague promise and a cloud that moved unpredictably. His "strategic plan" was essentially "follow the pillar of fire and try not to die." When people asked for specifics, he did not have a five-year roadmap with quarterly benchmarks. He had manna, which showed up daily and could not be hoarded, which is the exact opposite of strategic planning.[iv]
What Moses did have was honesty about the uncertainty and a stubborn conviction that the journey mattered even when the destination remained obscure. He did not pretend to know more than he did. When people asked reasonable questions like "How much longer?" or "Are we there yet?" or "Could we maybe turn around?" he did not pull out a glossy booklet with infographics. He pointed to the cloud and said, essentially, "Your guess is as good as mine, but we are following that."[v]
The Seduction of False Certainty
The temptation in church leadership is to manufacture certainty where none exists. When a congregation is anxious, the pastoral instinct is to project confidence. We craft vision statements that sound definitive. We announce timelines with precision. We speak about "where God is leading us" as though we have the divine GPS coordinates. And in doing so, we often lie—not maliciously, but out of a misguided belief that leadership requires the appearance of certainty even when we are as lost as everyone else.
Moses never made this mistake, possibly because his followers were armed and ornery and would have called him on it immediately. When he did not know something, he went back to the tent and argued with God until he got clearer instructions. When the instructions still did not make sense, he shared the confusion. "God says keep walking" is not an inspiring vision statement, but it has the significant advantage of being true.[vi]
There is something profoundly pastoral about refusing to offer false certainty. It does not eliminate the anxiety—the Israelites remained chronically anxious for forty years—but it does eliminate the betrayal that comes when promised certainty fails to materialise. If you have been told "just one more year until things stabilise" for three consecutive years, you begin to suspect your leaders are either lying or delusional. If you are told "I honestly do not know how long this will take, but I believe we are headed somewhere worth going," you may still be anxious, but at least you have been treated like an adult.
The Long Walk and the Short Memory
The other challenge Moses faced, which every pastor in transition knows intimately, is that people forget the starting point remarkably quickly. Three days into the wilderness, the Israelites were already nostalgic for Egypt, conveniently forgetting the slavery, the infanticide, and the brick quotas. They remembered the garlic and the leeks. They forgot the oppression. Memory, under stress, becomes astonishingly selective.[vii]
This happens in churches with depressing regularity. Three months into a building renovation, people forget why the old sanctuary was structurally unsound and remember only that the carpet was a lovely shade of burgundy. Six months into a new pastoral hire, the previous pastor achieves sainthood in collective memory, and everyone forgets they could not stand him either. The "good old days" become better the further removed we are from actually living in them.
Moses' response to this selective amnesia was not to argue with it but to keep redirecting attention forward. Yes, Egypt had garlic. The promised land has grapes the size of your head. Yes, slavery was familiar. Freedom is worth the discomfort of the unknown. He did not gaslight people into pretending the past was worse than they remembered. He simply insisted that the future, however uncertain, was more life-giving than the familiar chains they had left behind.
Leading from the Middle of the Mess
What makes Moses a more useful leadership model than most contemporary examples is that he did not lead from a place of arrival. He did not stand at the edge of Canaan and wave people forward. He walked in the middle of the pack, as confused and exhausted as everyone else, with nothing more to offer than a stubborn belief that the cloud knew where it was going even if he did not.[viii]
This is the Moses principle: leadership in uncertainty is not about having all the answers. It is about having the courage to keep walking when you do not. It is about naming the confusion without pretending to resolve it. It is about trusting that the destination matters less than the formation that happens in the journey, which is an annoying truth that does not fit on motivational posters but is nonetheless true.
Church leaders do not need to pretend they can see the promised land. They need to be honest about the wilderness, faithful in the fog, and willing to keep walking even when the only thing visible is the next step. The congregation does not need a five-year strategic plan with colour-coded phases. They need someone who will tell the truth, share the uncertainty, and point to the cloud—however strange and unpredictable—and say, "We are following that."
Moses never made it to the promised land himself, which is a detail church leadership books tend to gloss over. But he led a people from slavery to the edge of freedom, and that was enough. Sometimes leadership is not about arrival. It is about faithfulness in the direction of hope, one grumbling, manna-eating, cloud-following day at a time
[i] "How to Lead in the Wilderness: 4 Leadership Lessons from Moses," Crossroad Coach, July 6, 2020, https://crossroadcoach.com/4-leadership-lessons/.
[ii] See “Moses, Leadership, and a Vision of Fire," Cathedral of St. Philip, March 2, 2013, https://www.cathedralatl.org/Sermons/moses-leadership-and-a-vision-of-fire/.
[iii] "The Role of Vision Casting in Church Leadership," ACS Technologies, November 5, 2025, https://www.acstechnologies.com/church-growth/the-role-of-vision-casting-in-church-leadership-complete-guide/.
[iv] "Leadership in the Wilderness," Faith & Leadership, August 1, 2010, https://faithandleadership.com/leadership-the-wilderness.
[v] "Four Leadership Lessons from Moses," Ministry Matters, December 4, 2012, https://ministrymatters.com/2012-12-05_four_leadership_lessons_from_moses/.
[vi] "How the Wilderness Prepared Moses for Leadership," Shepherd Thoughts, June 30, 2025, https://www.shepherdthoughts.com/baptistchurchny/rethinking-moses-in-the-wilderness-a-deeper-look-at-leadership-preparation.
[vii] "Leadership Style of Moses in Exodus 15:22-18:27," Cabana Live, 2019, https://www.cabanalive.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Acts-3-1-Leadership-Style-of-Moses-Emmanuel-Nwaoru.pdf.
[viii] "How to Lead as a Pastor When You're Uncertain of Your Own Future," Faith & Leadership, October 27, 2025, https://faithandleadership.com/how-lead-pastor-when-youre-uncertain-your-own-future.